How it works
We analyzed 2+ million NBA shots (2016-present) to determine the likelihood of a shooting foul being called based on:-
- Shot distance (from dunks to deep 3s)
- Defender proximity (within 4 feet or not)
- Make/miss (missed shots draw more calls)
Accuracy
Here's how the actual number of shooting fouls called compare to our estimates, using just those 3 variables:-
- 96.4% reliable for a total game (avg. error ±3.2 fouls per 200 shots)
- 99.4% reliable for a player's season (±9 fouls per 1500 shots)
- 99.9% reliable for a team's season (±27.2 fouls per 10,000 shots)
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Your Team's Whistle
We then use these calculations of league-average shooting foul rates to determine how many extra fouls each player and team receives, and then estimate how many extra points are added given their free throw percentages.